Nepal and Regional Balance

["Sanjai Kukreti" <skukreti@home.com>]

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"What strategic importance is there in Nepal?"
Oh, none whatsoever, surrrrre...

Stratfor

Crisis in Nepal Could Change Regional Balance
04 January 2001

Summary

Dissent in the ranks of Nepal's ruling party is causing a political
crisis,
compounded by an increasingly successful Maoist insurgency. The central
government controls only about one-fourth of the country, anti-Indian
riots
and communal violence have broken out. Change in the political system is

likely. And given the isolated nation's invaluable geostrategic
location,
China will gain an advantage -- at the expense of Indian interests.

Analysis

Nepalese Prime Minister Girija Koirala barely survived a no-confidence
motion initiated against him by factions within his own party, the
Nepali
Congress, reported the Nepal News Jan. 4.

Deepening dissent within Nepal's ruling party adds to a serious systemic

crisis experienced by the government. If current trends are not changed,

they could lead to the government's collapse and a possible takeover by
Maoist insurgents. This will lead to significant geopolitical changes in
the
region that will favor China.

A landlocked country, where only tourism matters for international
economy,
Nepal has a strong geostrategic value to world powers. The power that
stations its space-linked surveillance, intelligence and navigation
systems
on Nepal's high mountains gets geostrategic leverage over several Asian
regions, from Central Asia to South-East Asia.

Bordering only China and India, Nepal also offers a geopolitical
advantage
to whichever takes the upper hand there. Such a situation would be
especially dangerous to India, since Nepal's border is 185 miles from
New
Delhi. Though major conflict is unlikely in even the distant future,
Indian
strategists appreciate the military capability China would gain.
Attacking
from Nepal would represent a deadly threat to the Indian capital.

Nepal's developing crisis has political, security, social and economic
dimensions. Only recently a kingdom with medieval rules, Nepal chose a
path
of multiparty democracy 10 years ago. It became a constitutional
monarchy
where real policies have been a result of parliamentary compromise
between
the Nepali Congress and its main opposition, the Nepal Communist Party
(Unified Marxist Leninist).



But last year witnessed a bitter feud within the ruling party that led
to
the current political crisis. Escalating inter-party rivalry could break
the
Nepali Congress into smaller parties. This may bring the Nepal Communist

Party to power through elections.

At the core of the political crisis is a crisis of government. Nepal's
government effectively controls only one-fourth of the country, reported
the
Kathmandu Post Jan. 3. The no-confidence motion was unleashed when the
government was accused of failing to maintain law and order, widespread
corruption and inability to govern. All political forces and mainstream
media attest to these accusations.

Such poor governance contributed to the security crisis. Maoist
insurgents
have already captured one-third of the country and announced the
creation of
a provisional government that aims to take over the country within one
or
two years. Whole units of Nepalese police have abandoned their posts and

fled from the line of confrontation with rebels, reported the Kathmandu
Post
Jan. 3. The army prefers to stay neutral, even if Maoist detachments are

nearby. The population in Maoist-dominated regions seems to support the
insurgents while some in government-controlled districts sympathize with

them.

A social crisis complicates the situation. Communal violence has become
the
norm. Recent anti-Indian riots caused by the misinterpreted remarks of
an
Indian movie star led to casualties with seven people killed by police.
This
led to an ongoing general strike called by the opposition. Nepal's
economy
has taken a hit. Tax revenues dropped drastically due to the strike and
to
fleeing Indian businesses. Foreign tourism revenues are also in decline.

Nepal is likely headed toward even more difficult times with the
probable
change of its entire political system, from multiparty democracy to
communist state. If current trends are unchanged, the chaos could
ultimately
lead to the government's collapse and the potential victory for the
Maoist
rebels.

Given the country's invaluable geostrategic location, literally at the
top
of Eurasia, this will give a dramatic advantage to Beijing's
geopolitical
position on the continent while causing major problems for India.
Whether
the future Nepal government becomes Maoist or communist, the government
will
likely lean toward Beijing, and will allow for establishment of Chinese
surveillance and listening posts.

That would position China's forces close to New Delhi and other vital
Indian
centers. It would also help Beijing gain geostrategic leverage over not
only
India but also larger areas, from Central Asia through Southeast Asia.

China's presence in Nepal would also complicate positions of the U.S.
Navy
in the Indian Ocean. With early warning, surveillance, intelligence and
navigation systems in Nepal, Beijing would keep a vast part of Asia and
military forces there under constant electronic watch.

India will be forced to counter Nepal's apparent slide toward Beijing
through other means, perhaps increasing contacts with Bhutan, another
buffer
state in the region. India might also conduct a more active policy in
Tibetan affairs while using the fact that it remains on good terms with
the
Dalai Lama and the Tibetan Buddhist hierarchy.
India could also increase dialogue with other countries along China's
perimeter, such as Mongolia and Vietnam. The cautious attitude of these
countries toward Beijing is no secret to New Delhi.






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